Thursday, September 6, 2012

What is in the Democrat Platfrom?

By now, you've probably heard what wasn't in the Democrat Platform.

You can find the document here.

Let's look at what's actually included in the platform.

This election is not simply a choice between two candidates or two political parties, but between two fundamentally different paths for our country and our families.

Agreed.

But just as the recession was not created overnight, we knew it would take time to recover from the crisis – and more needs to be done.

Here is what the President's team claimed in January 2009 (Table 1, pg 4):

Aggregate Effect of the Recovery Package on GDP and Jobs in 2010Q4
Real GDP
(billions of chained 2000 $)
Payroll Employment
Without Stimulus $11,770 133,876,000
With Stimulus $12,203 137,550,000

Ahem.

Payroll employment in December 2010 was 130,346,000 (series CES0000000001) which is lower than what the president's team claimed would have happened without the stimulus. Some of us knew better than the President's team of politically motivated economists and warned him at the time.

Maybe they were just wrong about the timing?

Payroll employment in July 2012 was 133,245,000. Still less than what the president's team claimed would have happened with no stimulus at all.

The President applied for the job claiming he and his team were the smart ones. They exhibited a completely unwarranted belief in their ability to micro-manage the economy. They failed to accomplish the goals they had established for themselves.

I spent a considerable part of my life teaching. Professors with standards do not look favorably upon students requesting an incomplete. There is no reason to re-appoint the President given that he was not able to achieve the goals he set for himself. Remember: This time, he won't even be facing the threat of not being re-hired. Why assume he'd do better when he doesn't even have re-election at stake?

What about the GDP? Well, currently, BEA lists real GDP in chained 2005 dollars. I'd need the 2000-based deflator to be able to compare the projected GDP to what actually happened. However, let's note that the second quarter real per-capita U.S. GDP was hovering around 90% of the pre-crisis per capita real GDP.

Let's switch gears, and look at the world:

And in Syria, we have led the international community to politically and economically isolate the regime, to increase pressure on President Assad to step down, and to provide assistance to unify the Syrian opposition in order to enable a stable transition. Moving forward, we will work to hasten the end of the Assad regime and support a political transition to a stable and democratic Syria.

Ostrich: Meet sand. Bury head.

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