Tuesday, October 2, 2012

81% think the state of the economy is "not good" or "poor" and 60% think it is not getting better

According to a Quinnipiac poll released on October 2, 2012, almost no one thinks the state of the economy is excellent, and 81% think that it is either "not good" or "poor":

21. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Excellent             -      -      1%     1%     -      1%     -      2%
Good                 17      5     31     17     17     18     13     39
Not so good          38     22     56     36     35     42     37     49
Poor                 43     73     12     46     47     40     49      9
DK/NA                 -      -      1      -      -      -      -      1

In addition, 60% think it is not getting better:

22. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Better               39%     7%    75%    36%    37%    42%    33%    79%
Worse                34     62      7     35     35     33     39      6
The same             26     30     18     29     27     24     28     15
DK/NA                 1      -      -      -      -      1      -      -

Of course, Politico choose to run with the gender gap using the headline Poll: Obama leads 18 points among women.

However, looking at the tabulations above, we see that 82% of women think the state of the economy is "not good" or "poor", and 57% of them don't think it's getting better.

So, let's look at that gender gap again:

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney?

LIKELY VOTERS.............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
                                                                         
Obama                49%     7%    94%    45%    42%    56%    42%    94%
Romney               45     91      5     47     52     38     53      2 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      -      4      3      1      2      1 
DK/NA                 4      2      2      5      3      5      3      3 

On the other hand, among White women, support for Obama is 49% versus 46% support for Romney. Where is the 56% - 38% gap coming from? Logically, it must come from non-white voters who already have a uniformly high preference for Obama.

Therefore, the driver of the "gender gap" must be something other than just gender.

The second quarter real GDP growth rate was revised downward from 1.7% to 1.3%, reflecting a 24% downward revision.

A 1.3% growth rate is pitiful. It demonstrates once more the anemic recovery fairy tale.

This is important because every problem, including women being able to choose exactly what type of birth control to use or not use is solved much more easily in a growing and vibrant economy.

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